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Space Weather Update: 02/14/2016

By, 02/14/2016

AURORAS FOR VALENTINE'S DAY? NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms on Valentine's Day. This in in response to a CME, expected to strike Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of Feb. 14th. Sunday could bring a romantic evening to the Arctic Circle.

Last night, Feb. 13th, a rosy display of auroras appeared over Thule, Greenland:


"We were out exploring some old buildings and got surprised by some nice pink auroras," says photographer Shane Martin. "These were different as they were north and directly overhead. Thule's lights are usually south of our base."

More pink lights could be in the offing on Feb. 14th as the CME approaches. High latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text or voice

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: Today, Feb. 13th, on the Isle of Anglesey in Wales, Mark Townley bent over the eyepiece of his backyard solar telescope, then stood up in surprise. "I couldn't believe my eyes," he says. "Sunspot AR2497 was shining brightly as an M1.8 solar flare was taking place. It looked fantastic!" He captured the event in this picture:


Actually, catching this sunspot in mid-flare is not as surprising as one might suspect. AR2397 is crackling with explosions in its unstable magnetic canopy. Pulses of UV radiation from the site are causing minor shortwave radio blackouts, and it has already hurled one CME toward Earth (due to arrive on Feb. 15th).

NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of additional M-class flares in the next 24 hours, so monitoring is encouraged. Solar flare alerts: text or voice

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery

CORONAL CANYON: Solar wind is spewing out of a canyon in the sun's atmosphere. Researchers call the opening a "coronal hole." It's the dark blue chasm in this extreme ultraviolet image taken today by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:


Coronal holes are places in the sun's outer atmosphere where magnetic fields spread apart and allow solar wind to escape. The outward flow is traced by white arrows in the image. These magnetic openings form about once a month--sometimes more often. Solar wind flowing from today's coronal hole should reach Earth on Feb. 16th or 17th, possibly sparking auroras when it arrives. Stay tuned.

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery

 All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on

On Feb. 13, 2016, the network reported 17 fireballs.
(17 sporadics)



In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]


 Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On February 14, 2016 there were 1678 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid


Miss Distance


2016 BE

Feb 1

5.9 LD

86 m

2016 BA15

Feb 1

2.9 LD

19 m

2015 XA379

Feb 7

8.1 LD

38 m

2016 BQ

Feb 7

11.1 LD

21 m

2014 QD364

Feb 7

14 LD

16 m

2013 VA10

Feb 8

12.5 LD

165 m

2016 BQ15

Feb 8

8.5 LD

44 m

2014 EK24

Feb 14

13.8 LD

94 m

2010 LJ14

Feb 16

68.5 LD

1.2 km

1999 YK5

Feb 19

51.7 LD

2.0 km

2010 WD1

Feb 22

12.3 LD

22 m

1991 CS

Feb 23

65.5 LD

1.4 km

2011 EH17

Mar 1

11.1 LD

52 m

2013 TX68

Mar 5

0.044 LD

30 m

2001 PL9

Mar 9

77.6 LD

1.2 km

2010 FX9

Mar 19

6.9 LD

62 m


Mar 21

13.9 LD

0 m

2016 BA14

Mar 22

9.2 LD

540 m

1993 VA

Mar 23

59.6 LD

1.6 km

2001 XD

Mar 28

64.5 LD

1.0 km

2016 BC14

Mar 29

9.9 LD

280 m

2002 AJ29

Apr 6

55.2 LD

1.5 km

2002 EB3

Apr 8

55.6 LD

1.2 km

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

 Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Situation Report -- Oct. 30, 2015Stratospheric Radiation (+37o N)

Cosmic ray levels are elevated(+6.1% above the Space Age median). The trend is flat. Cosmic ray levels have increased +0% in the past month.

Sept. 06: 4.14 uSv/hr (414 uRad/hr)

Sept. 12: 4.09 uSv/hr (409 uRad/hr)

Sept. 23: 4.12 uSv/hr (412 uRad/hr)

Sept. 25: 4.16 uSv/hr (416 uRad/hr)

Sept. 27: 4.13 uSv/hr (413 uRad/hr)

Oct. 11: 4.02 uSv/hr (402 uRad/hr)

Oct. 22: 4.11 uSv/hr (411 uRad/hr)

These measurements are based on regular space weather balloon flights: learn more.

Approximately once a week, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly "space weather balloons" to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed cloudstrigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Our measurements show that someone flying back and forth across the continental USA, just once, can absorb as much ionizing radiation as 2 to 5 dental X-rays. For example, here is the data from a flight on Oct. 22, 2015:

Radiation levels peak at the entrance to the stratosphere in a broad region called the "Pfotzer Maximum." This peak is named after physicist George Pfotzer who discovered it using balloons and Geiger tubes in the 1930s. Radiation levels there are more than 80x sea level.

Note that the bottom of the Pfotzer Maximim is near 55,000 ft. This means that some high-flying aircraft are not far from the zone of maximum radiation. Indeed, according to the Oct 22th measurements, a plane flying at 45,000 feet is exposed to 2.79 uSv/hr. At that rate, a passenger would absorb about one dental X-ray's worth of radiation in about 5 hours.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Current Conditions

Solar wind
speed: 408.3 km/sec
density: 5.8 protons/cm3

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1402 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C6 
1025 UT Feb14 
24-hr: C6 1025 UT Feb14 
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1400 UTDaily Sun: 14 Feb 16AR2497 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 46 
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 14 Feb 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 0 days (0%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 14 Feb 2016

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 110 sfu

explanation | more data
Updated 14 Feb 2016

Current Auroral Oval:

Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.3 nT
Bz: 1.9 nT south 

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1401 UTCoronal Holes: 14 Feb 16 
Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Feb. 16-17. Credit: SDO/AIA.Noctilucent Clouds The southern season for noctilucent clouds began on Dec. 13, 2015. It is expected to end in late February 2016.

Switch view: Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, PolarUpdated at: 02-12-2016 16:55:02

NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2016 Feb 13 2200 UTC


0-24 hr

24-48 hr


35 %

35 %


05 %

05 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: activeminor stormsevere stormUpdated at: 2016 Feb 13 2200 UTCMid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


35 %

40 %


15 %

20 %


01 %

05 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


15 %

10 %


30 %

30 %


50 %

60 %