Love Has Won


We Are The First Contact Ground Crew Team, who are preparing to take Humanity Home Into The Light.

Space Weather Update: 02/05/2016

By, 02/05/2016

ASTEROID TO BUZZ EARTH: A small asteroid named "2013 TX68" will fly by Earth on March 5th, and NASA says it could come as close as 17,000 km to our planet's surface. That would put it well inside the Clarke Belt of geosynchronous satellites. The space rock is about 30 meters wide, or 50% larger than the asteroid that broke up in the atmosphere over Chelyabinsk, Russia, three years ago. If an asteroid the size of 2013 TX68 were to enter Earth's atmosphere, it would likely produce an air burst with twice the energy of the Chelyabinsk event. Get the full story from NASA.

OZONE HOLE FORMS OVER THE UK: For the past week, sky watchers in the UK have witnessed a rare apparition of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Normally restricted to the Arctic Circle, the fantastically colorful clouds have appeared over the British Isles almost every day since Jan. 31st. Colin Fraser photographed the display over Edinburgh, Scotland, on Feb. 2nd:


PSCs form in the lower stratosphere when temperatures drop to a staggeringly-cold -85ºC. High-altitude sunlight shining through tiny ice particles ~10µm wide produce bright iridescent colors by diffraction and interference.

But there is more to PSCs than ice. Some polar stratospheric clouds contain very small droplets of naturally occurring nitric and sulphuric acids. These droplets destroy ozone. Indeed, atmospheric optics expert Les Cowley points out that a temporary ozone hole has formed over Ireland and the UK. It is the blue patch in this Feb. 1st ozone map from NASA's Arctic Ozone Watch:


"The acid droplets destroy the stratospheric ozone layer that protects us from harmful solar ultra-violet rays," says Cowley. "They catalyse unreactive forms of man-made chlorine into active free radicals (for example ClO, chlorine monoxide). The radicals destroy many ozone molecules in a series of chain reactions.."

This outbreak of PSCs is truly unusual. "Prior to this outbreak I have seen PSCs over the UK only twice in the last 20 years!" says Cowley. "This episode is exceptional at such low latitudes.  If it goes on any longer my camera will be worn out."

Realtime Stratospheric Cloud Photo Gallery

MORNING PLANETS: Something special is about to happen in the morning sky. On Feb. 6th and 7th, the crescent Moon will join Mercury and Venus, forming a bright triangle in the rosy glow of dawn. This morning, Tom J. Martinez of Pueblo West, Colorado, photographed the Moon en route to the convergence:


"I created a nine-panel panorama which shows all five planets now visible in the morning sky: Mercury, Venus, Saturn, Mars and Jupiter," says Martinez. "It was a beautiful view."

And the view is about to improve. Set your alarm for dawn and look east into the sunrise. It's a great way to start the day. [sky map]

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery

 All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on

On Feb. 4, 2016, the network reported 15 fireballs.
(15 sporadics)



In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]


 Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On February 5, 2016 there were 1668 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid


Miss Distance


2016 BE

Feb 1

5.9 LD

86 m

2016 BA15

Feb 1

2.9 LD

19 m

2015 XA379

Feb 7

8.1 LD

38 m

2016 BQ

Feb 7

11.1 LD

21 m

2014 QD364

Feb 7

14 LD

16 m

2013 VA10

Feb 8

12.5 LD

165 m

2016 BQ15

Feb 8

8.5 LD

44 m

2014 EK24

Feb 14

13.8 LD

94 m

2010 LJ14

Feb 16

68.5 LD

1.2 km

1999 YK5

Feb 19

51.7 LD

2.0 km

2010 WD1

Feb 22

12.3 LD

22 m

1991 CS

Feb 23

65.5 LD

1.4 km

2011 EH17

Mar 1

11.1 LD

52 m

2013 TX68

Mar 5

0.044 LD

30 m

2001 PL9

Mar 9

77.6 LD

1.2 km

2010 FX9

Mar 19

6.9 LD

62 m


Mar 21

13.9 LD

0 m

2016 BA14

Mar 22

9.2 LD

540 m

1993 VA

Mar 23

59.6 LD

1.6 km

2001 XD

Mar 28

64.5 LD

1.0 km

2016 BC14

Mar 29

9.9 LD

280 m

2002 AJ29

Apr 6

55.2 LD

1.5 km

2002 EB3

Apr 8

55.6 LD

1.2 km

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

 Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Situation Report -- Oct. 30, 2015Stratospheric Radiation (+37o N)

Cosmic ray levels are elevated(+6.1% above the Space Age median). The trend is flat. Cosmic ray levels have increased +0% in the past month.

Sept. 06: 4.14 uSv/hr (414 uRad/hr)

Sept. 12: 4.09 uSv/hr (409 uRad/hr)

Sept. 23: 4.12 uSv/hr (412 uRad/hr)

Sept. 25: 4.16 uSv/hr (416 uRad/hr)

Sept. 27: 4.13 uSv/hr (413 uRad/hr)

Oct. 11: 4.02 uSv/hr (402 uRad/hr)

Oct. 22: 4.11 uSv/hr (411 uRad/hr)

These measurements are based on regular space weather balloon flights: learn more.

Approximately once a week, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly "space weather balloons" to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed cloudstrigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Our measurements show that someone flying back and forth across the continental USA, just once, can absorb as much ionizing radiation as 2 to 5 dental X-rays. For example, here is the data from a flight on Oct. 22, 2015:

Radiation levels peak at the entrance to the stratosphere in a broad region called the "Pfotzer Maximum." This peak is named after physicist George Pfotzer who discovered it using balloons and Geiger tubes in the 1930s. Radiation levels there are more than 80x sea level.

Note that the bottom of the Pfotzer Maximim is near 55,000 ft. This means that some high-flying aircraft are not far from the zone of maximum radiation. Indeed, according to the Oct 22th measurements, a plane flying at 45,000 feet is exposed to 2.79 uSv/hr. At that rate, a passenger would absorb about one dental X-ray's worth of radiation in about 5 hours.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Current Conditions

Solar wind
speed: 473.1 km/sec
density: 3.5 protons/cm3

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1402 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 
0722 UT Feb05 
24-hr: C3 0056 UT Feb05 
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1300 UTDaily Sun: 05 Feb 16AR2494 is growing rapidly and could soon pose a threat for M-class flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 95 
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 05 Feb 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 0 days (0%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 05 Feb 2016

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 120 sfu

explanation | more data
Updated 05 Feb 2016

Current Auroral Oval:

Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.3 nT
Bz: 3.0 nT north 

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1402 UTCoronal Holes: 04 Feb 16 
Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on ~Feb. 4th. Credit: SDO/AIA.Noctilucent Clouds The southern season for noctilucent clouds began on Dec. 13, 2015. The coverage of NLCs over Antarctica is rapidly multiplying in 2016.

Switch view: Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, PolarUpdated at: 02-05-2016 03:55:02

NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2016 Feb 04 2200 UTC


0-24 hr

24-48 hr


20 %

20 %


05 %

05 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: activeminor stormsevere stormUpdated at: 2016 Feb 04 2200 UTCMid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


10 %

05 %


05 %

01 %


01 %

01 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


20 %

15 %


25 %

15 %


20 %

10 %