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Space Weather Update: 03/03/2016

By, 03/03/2016

TOTAL ECLIPSE OF THE SUN: In less than a week, there's going to be a total eclipse of the sun. On March 9th, the new Moon will pass directly in front of the sun, bringing night to day and revealing the sun's ghostly corona. The path of totality cuts across Indonesia and the Pacific Ocean: animated map. is sending a team of students to observe the eclipse and test cameras for the Solar Eclipse Balloon Network. Stay tuned for updates.

PHYSICS OF AN EXPLODING SPACE WEATHER BALLOON: On Feb. 27th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a space weather balloon to measure increasing levels of cosmic rays. At the apex of the flight, the balloon exploded as planned and the radiation sensors parachuted back to Earth. A high-speed camera on top of the payload captured some extraordinary images of the pop:


These images illustrate new findings about the physics of exploding balloons. In Oct. 2015, researchers Sébastien Moulinet and Mokhtar Adda-Bedia of the Ecole Normale Supérieure published a Physical Review Letter entitled "Popping Balloons: A Case Study of Dynamical Fragmentation." In it, they reported the results of a series of fun yet informative laboratory experiments in which one balloon after another was popped and analyzed.

Basically, there are two ways a balloon can pop: along a single team (the "opening regime") or along many tears (the "fragmentation regime"). This video shows the two regimes in action. Which way the balloon decided to pop depends on the stress in the rubber membrane. When the stress is low, it can be relieved with a single tear, but when the stress is high, many tears are required to do the job.

Clearly, space weather balloons explode in the fragmentation regime. This is hardly a surprise. When space weather balloons are launched, they measure no more than 6 to 8 feet in diameter. By the time they reach the stratosphere, they have stretched into a sphere as wide as a house. That's a lot of tension to release!

More information about this research is available from the American Physical Society.

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery

SOLAR WIND SPARKS AURORAS: A solar wind stream is gently buffeting Earth's magnetic field, and this is sparking auroras around the Arctic Circle. Truls Tiller saw this display last night in Grøtfjorden, Norway:


"We took some guests outside to hunt for the aurora," says Tiller. "I had a good feeling about the night--and those feelings were justified. A nice display and some very happy guests made the night complete. "

This is not a strong solar wind stream. Nevertheless, it is doing a good job lighting up Arctic skies. NOAA forecasters say the influence of the stream could last for two more days with a 20% chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms. Aurora alerts: textor voice

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery

 All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on

On Mar. 3, 2016, the network reported 10 fireballs.
(10 sporadics)



In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]


 Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On March 3, 2016 there were 1682 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid


Miss Distance


2016 DL1

Mar 1

4.7 LD

18 m

2011 EH17

Mar 1

11.1 LD

52 m

2016 DV1

Mar 3

1 LD

44 m

2016 DW1

Mar 3

14.2 LD

28 m

2016 DM1

Mar 3

5.9 LD

25 m

2016 DU1

Mar 3

13 LD

24 m

2016 DN2

Mar 5

1.8 LD

21 m

2013 TX68

Mar 8

13 LD

38 m

2001 PL9

Mar 9

77.6 LD

1.2 km

2010 FX9

Mar 19

6.9 LD

62 m


Mar 21

13.9 LD

0 m


Mar 22

9.2 LD

545 m

1993 VA

Mar 23

59.6 LD

1.6 km

2016 CY135

Mar 23

13.9 LD

60 m

2001 XD

Mar 28

64.5 LD

1.0 km

2016 BC14

Mar 29

9.8 LD

270 m

2002 AJ29

Apr 6

55.2 LD

1.5 km

2002 EB3

Apr 8

55.6 LD

1.2 km

2009 KJ

Apr 10

37.7 LD

1.6 km

2005 GR33

Apr 13

7.8 LD

175 m

2008 HU4

Apr 16

4.9 LD

10 m

2001 VG5

Apr 28

52.4 LD

1.8 km

2014 US115

May 1

9.4 LD

52 m

2008 TZ3

May 5

13.1 LD

355 m

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

 Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Situation Report -- Oct. 30, 2015Stratospheric Radiation (+37o N)

Cosmic ray levels are elevated(+6.1% above the Space Age median). The trend is flat. Cosmic ray levels have increased +0% in the past month.

Sept. 06: 4.14 uSv/hr (414 uRad/hr)

Sept. 12: 4.09 uSv/hr (409 uRad/hr)

Sept. 23: 4.12 uSv/hr (412 uRad/hr)

Sept. 25: 4.16 uSv/hr (416 uRad/hr)

Sept. 27: 4.13 uSv/hr (413 uRad/hr)

Oct. 11: 4.02 uSv/hr (402 uRad/hr)

Oct. 22: 4.11 uSv/hr (411 uRad/hr)

These measurements are based on regular space weather balloon flights: learn more.

Approximately once a week, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly "space weather balloons" to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed cloudstrigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Our measurements show that someone flying back and forth across the continental USA, just once, can absorb as much ionizing radiation as 2 to 5 dental X-rays. For example, here is the data from a flight on Oct. 22, 2015:

Radiation levels peak at the entrance to the stratosphere in a broad region called the "Pfotzer Maximum." This peak is named after physicist George Pfotzer who discovered it using balloons and Geiger tubes in the 1930s. Radiation levels there are more than 80x sea level.

Note that the bottom of the Pfotzer Maximim is near 55,000 ft. This means that some high-flying aircraft are not far from the zone of maximum radiation. Indeed, according to the Oct 22th measurements, a plane flying at 45,000 feet is exposed to 2.79 uSv/hr. At that rate, a passenger would absorb about one dental X-ray's worth of radiation in about 5 hours.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Current Conditions

Solar wind
speed: 411.3 km/sec
density: 1.7 protons/cm3

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1708 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 
1550 UT Mar03 
24-hr: B5 1550 UT Mar03 
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1700 UTDaily Sun: 03 Mar 16Not one of these small sunspots poses a threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 65 
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 03 Mar 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 0 days (0%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 03 Mar 2016

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 98 sfu

explanation | more data
Updated 03 Mar 2016

Current Auroral Oval:

Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.7 nT
Bz: 2.5 nT north 

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1706 UTCoronal Holes: 03 Mar 16 
There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. Credit: SDO/AIA.Noctilucent Clouds The southern season for noctilucent clouds began on Dec. 13, 2015. It is expected to end in late February 2016.

Switch view: Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, PolarUpdated at: 02-12-2016 16:55:02

NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2016 Mar 02 2200 UTC


0-24 hr

24-48 hr


05 %

05 %


01 %

01 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: activeminor stormsevere stormUpdated at: 2016 Mar 02 2200 UTCMid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


15 %

20 %


05 %

05 %


01 %

01 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


20 %

15 %


25 %

30 %


20 %

25 %