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Space Weather Update: 05/11/2016

By, 05/11/2016

LONG RANGE FORECAST: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain low for the rest of the week. The next storms are possible on May 16th when Earth enters a stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole on the sun. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras at that time. Aurora alerts: textvoice.

SUPERIOR CONJUNCTION OF VENUS: Looking for Venus? Don't. You will only hurt your eyes. This month Venus is uncomfortably close to the sun. It soars overhead at local noon less than 7o away from the blinding solar disk. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) is monitoring the close encounter using an opaque disk to block the glare:


As seen from Earth, Venus will remain close to the sun for the next month and a half. A coronagraph such as the one on SOHO will be required to track the planet during this time. Dates of special interest include May 24th, when Venus, the sun, and the Pleiades star cluster form a triangle in the SOHO field of view, and June 6th, when Venus passes directly behind the body of the sun. Astronomers call the latter a "superior conjunction of Venus."

Still looking for Venus? Here it is.

Mercury Transit Photo Gallery

DOUBLE SPACE WEATHER BALLOON LAUNCH: Yesterday, May 8th, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus conducted a double-launch of space weather balloons. The two balloons, one released from Oregon and the other from California, flew into the strongest geomagnetic storm of 2016.


Each of the balloons carried a cosmic ray payload to the stratosphere, measuring atmospheric radiation from ground level to the edge of space during the G3-class storm. What effect does such a strong geomagnetic storm have on the upper atmosphere? And does Oregon receive more space radiation because of its higher magnetic latitude? These are just two of the questions we hope to answer.

The payloads have since parachuted back to Earth--one landing in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, and the other on the east side of the Cascade mountains near Bend, Oregon. Recovery teams entered the wilderness on May 9th and bring back the data. Stay tuned!

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery

 All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on

On May. 11, 2016, the network reported 15 fireballs.
(12 sporadics, 3 eta Lyrids)



In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]


 Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On May 11, 2016 there were 1702 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid


Miss Distance


2014 JG55

May 8

7.6 LD

7 m

2016 JP17

May 8

12.1 LD

108 m

2016 JC6

May 8

12.8 LD

240 m

2016 JQ5

May 9

1.6 LD

10 m

2016 JE18

May 11

9.4 LD

24 m

2016 JD18

May 16

1.6 LD

50 m

2016 JH18

May 17

13.5 LD

26 m

2016 GS2

May 18

3.4 LD

108 m

2016 HF3

May 18

8.5 LD

56 m

2009 DL46

May 24

6.2 LD

215 m

1997 XF11

Jun 10

70 LD

1.8 km

2015 XZ378

Jun 13

9.7 LD

16 m

2009 CV

Jun 20

12.4 LD

60 m

2010 NY65

Jun 24

10.7 LD

215 m

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

 Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Situation Report -- Oct. 30, 2015Stratospheric Radiation (+37o N)

Cosmic ray levels are elevated(+6.1% above the Space Age median). The trend is flat. Cosmic ray levels have increased +0% in the past month.

Sept. 06: 4.14 uSv/hr (414 uRad/hr)

Sept. 12: 4.09 uSv/hr (409 uRad/hr)

Sept. 23: 4.12 uSv/hr (412 uRad/hr)

Sept. 25: 4.16 uSv/hr (416 uRad/hr)

Sept. 27: 4.13 uSv/hr (413 uRad/hr)

Oct. 11: 4.02 uSv/hr (402 uRad/hr)

Oct. 22: 4.11 uSv/hr (411 uRad/hr)

These measurements are based on regular space weather balloon flights: learn more.

Approximately once a week, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly "space weather balloons" to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed cloudstrigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Our measurements show that someone flying back and forth across the continental USA, just once, can absorb as much ionizing radiation as 2 to 5 dental X-rays. For example, here is the data from a flight on Oct. 22, 2015:


Radiation levels peak at the entrance to the stratosphere in a broad region called the "Pfotzer Maximum." This peak is named after physicist George Pfotzer who discovered it using balloons and Geiger tubes in the 1930s. Radiation levels there are more than 80x sea level.

Note that the bottom of the Pfotzer Maximim is near 55,000 ft. This means that some high-flying aircraft are not far from the zone of maximum radiation. Indeed, according to the Oct 22th measurements, a plane flying at 45,000 feet is exposed to 2.79 uSv/hr. At that rate, a passenger would absorb about one dental X-ray's worth of radiation in about 5 hours.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.


Current Conditions

Solar wind
speed: 434.2 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1850 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B8
1422 UT May11
24-hr: B8 1422 UT May11
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1800 UTDaily Sun: 11 May 16Solar activity is low. None of these sunspots pose a threat for strong flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 70
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 11 May 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 0 days (0%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 11 May 2016

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 89 sfu

explanation | more data
Updated 11 May 2016

Current Auroral Oval:


Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 2.4 nT
Bz: 1.4 nT south

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1850 UTCoronal Holes: 11 May 16Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole could reach Earth on May 16-17. Credit: SDO/AIA.Noctilucent Clouds The southern season for noctilucent clouds has ended and we are now waiting for the first northern NLCs to appear--probably in mid-to late-May.


Switch view: Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, PolarUpdated at: 05-11-2016 00:55:02

NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2016 May 10 2200 UTC


0-24 hr

24-48 hr


05 %

05 %


01 %

01 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: activeminor stormsevere stormUpdated at: 2016 May 10 2200 UTCMid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


30 %

25 %


15 %

05 %


01 %

01 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


15 %

15 %


25 %

25 %


40 %

30 %