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Space Weather Update: 05/14/2016

By 05/14/2016

GEOMAGNETIC FORECAST: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain low for the rest of the week. The next storms are possible on May 16th when Earth enters a stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole on the sun. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras at that time. Aurora alerts: textvoice.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON RESULTS: Last weekend, on May 8th, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus simultaneously launched a pair of space weather balloons separated by 500 miles--one near Bend, Oregon, and the other near Bishop, California: map. Both balloons carried a payload of cosmic ray sensors to altitudes near 120,000 ft. Which state had more radiation in its atmosphere? The answer is Oregon:


The graph shows how radiation levels changed as the balloons ascended. From ground level to 40,000 feet, the two curves are almost indistinguishable. In terms of radiation, California and Oregon are much the same at altitudes where planes fly. Above 40,000 feet, however, the curves diverge. Peak radiation levels detected in the stratosphere over Oregon were more than 25% higher than California.

Some of this difference is to be expected. Oregon is closer to Earth's magnetic north pole where radiation levels are naturally higher. We note, however, that the magnetic latitude of the Oregon balloon (49.6o N) was only 6 degrees greater than the California balloon (43.5o N). It is perhaps a bit surprising that such a small change in latitude yielded such a significant change in radiation.

The natural difference between Oregon and California might have been amplified by space weather. At the time of the balloon launch, the strongest geomagnetic storm of 2016 (a G3-class event now known as the "Mother's Day Storm") was underway. Could this have been a factor? We will have to launch another pair of balloons to find out. A repeat of the experiment during quiet conditions should reveal the role of geomagnetic activity.

You can help: This research is crowd-funded. If you would like to sponsor our next Oregon-California balloon flight, currently scheduled for June, please contact Dr. Tony Phillips to get involved.

EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD IS CHANGING: Anyone watching a compass needle point steadily north might suppose that Earth's magnetic field is a constant. It's not. Researchers have long known that changes are afoot. The north magnetic pole routinely moves, as much as 40 km/yr, causing compass needles to drift over time. Moreover, the global magnetic field has weakened 10% since the 19th century.

A new study by the European Space Agency's constellation of Swarm satellites reveals that changes may be happening even faster than previously thought. In this map, blue depicts where Earth's magnetic field is weak and red shows regions where it is strong:


Data from Swarm, combined with observations from the CHAMP and Ørsted satellites, show clearly that the field has weakened by about 3.5% at high latitudes over North America, while it has strengthened about 2% over Asia. The region where the field is at its weakest – the South Atlantic Anomaly – has moved steadily westward and weakened further by about 2%. These changes have occured over the relatively brief period between 1999 and mid-2016.

Earth's magnetic field protects us from solar storms and cosmic rays. Less magnetism means more radiation can penetrate our planet's atmosphere. Indeed, high altitude balloons launched by routinely detect increasing levels of cosmic rays over California. Perhaps the ebbing magnetic field over North America contributes to that trend.

As remarkable as these changes sound, they're mild compared to what Earth's magnetic field has done in the past. Sometimes the field completely flips, with north and the south poles swapping places. Such reversals, recorded in the magnetism of ancient rocks, are unpredictable. They come at irregular intervals averaging about 300,000 years; the last one was 780,000 years ago. Are we overdue for another? No one knows.

Swarm is a trio of satellites equipped with vector magnetometers capable of sensing Earth's magnetic field all the way from orbital altitudes down to the edge of our planet's core. The constellation is expected to continue operations at least until 2017, and possibly beyond, so stay tuned for updates.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

WHAT ARE THESE CLOUDS? Every summer, something strange and wonderful happens high above the Earth's poles.  Ice crystals form and cling to the smoky remains of meteors, forming electric-blue clouds with tendrils that ripple hypnotically against the sunset sky. The arrival of the first "noctilucent clouds" (NLCs) is always eagerly anticipated by high-latitude sky watchers. On May 10th in Scotland, Andy Stables may have spotted the first apparition of 2016:


"I feel certain these are noctilucent clouds," says Stables, who is a veteran observer of NLCs, "but it is exceptionally early to capture them. It is the earliest I have ever managed to see them here on the Isle of Skye."

Normally, the first noctilucent clouds appear in late May or even early June. An apparition on May 10th makes one wonder if this could be something else--e.g., unusually high cirrus clouds catching the rays of the sun after sunset.

"I tried to convince myself that these might be cirrus clouds, but the sun was more than 12o below the horizon, which would make catching cirrus quite difficult," adds Stables.

NLCs are Earth's highest clouds. Seeded by meteoroids, they float at the edge of space more than 80 km above the planet's surface. The clouds are very cold and filled with tiny ice crystals that glow electric-blue when they catch the rays of the setting sun.

The jury's still out on whether the clouds Stables saw are NLCs. NASA's AIM spacecraft, which monitors noctilucent clouds from Earth orbit, has not yet confirmed the sighting. Under certain lighting conditions, however, the human eye can be more sensitive to NLCs than instruments on the spacecraft, so they could be real.

Just in case, high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for NLCs in the evenings ahead. Observing tips: Look west 30 to 60 minutes after sunset when the sun has dipped 6o to 16o below the horizon. If you see luminous blue-white tendrils spreading across the sky, you've probably spotted a noctilucent cloud.

Realtime NLC Photo Gallery


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery

 All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on

On May. 14, 2016, the network reported 11 fireballs.
(11 sporadics)



In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]


 Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On May 14, 2016 there were potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid


Miss Distance


2016 JQ5

May 9

1.6 LD

10 m

2016 JE18

May 11

9.4 LD

23 m

2016 JW28

May 14

5.6 LD

36 m

2016 JD18

May 16

1.6 LD

50 m

2016 JH18

May 17

13.5 LD

26 m

2016 GS2

May 18

3.4 LD

108 m

2016 HF3

May 18

8.5 LD

55 m

2009 DL46

May 24

6.2 LD

215 m

2016 JB29

Jun 4

12.1 LD

56 m

1997 XF11

Jun 10

70 LD

1.8 km

2015 XZ378

Jun 13

9.7 LD

16 m

2009 CV

Jun 20

12.4 LD

60 m

2010 NY65

Jun 24

10.7 LD

215 m

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

 Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Situation Report -- Oct. 30, 2015Stratospheric Radiation (+37o N)

Cosmic ray levels are elevated(+6.1% above the Space Age median). The trend is flat. Cosmic ray levels have increased +0% in the past month.

Sept. 06: 4.14 uSv/hr (414 uRad/hr)

Sept. 12: 4.09 uSv/hr (409 uRad/hr)

Sept. 23: 4.12 uSv/hr (412 uRad/hr)

Sept. 25: 4.16 uSv/hr (416 uRad/hr)

Sept. 27: 4.13 uSv/hr (413 uRad/hr)

Oct. 11: 4.02 uSv/hr (402 uRad/hr)

Oct. 22: 4.11 uSv/hr (411 uRad/hr)

These measurements are based on regular space weather balloon flights: learn more.

Approximately once a week, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly "space weather balloons" to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed cloudstrigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Our measurements show that someone flying back and forth across the continental USA, just once, can absorb as much ionizing radiation as 2 to 5 dental X-rays. For example, here is the data from a flight on Oct. 22, 2015:


Radiation levels peak at the entrance to the stratosphere in a broad region called the "Pfotzer Maximum." This peak is named after physicist George Pfotzer who discovered it using balloons and Geiger tubes in the 1930s. Radiation levels there are more than 80x sea level.

Note that the bottom of the Pfotzer Maximim is near 55,000 ft. This means that some high-flying aircraft are not far from the zone of maximum radiation. Indeed, according to the Oct 22th measurements, a plane flying at 45,000 feet is exposed to 2.79 uSv/hr. At that rate, a passenger would absorb about one dental X-ray's worth of radiation in about 5 hours.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.


Current Conditions

Solar wind
speed: 316.3 km/sec
density: 5.5 protons/cm3

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1739 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C8
1134 UT May14
24-hr: C8 1134 UT May14
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1700 UTDaily Sun: 14 May 16Solar activity is low. None of these sunspots pose a threat for strong flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 76
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 13 May 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 0 days (0%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 13 May 2016

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 92 sfu

explanation | more data
Updated 13 May 2016

Current Auroral Oval:


Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.8 nT
Bz: 2.6 nT south

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1739 UTCoronal Holes: 13 May 16Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole could reach Earth on May 16-17. Credit: SDO/AIA.Noctilucent Clouds The southern season for noctilucent clouds has ended and we are now waiting for the first northern NLCs to appear--probably in mid-to late-May.


Switch view: Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, PolarUpdated at: 05-11-2016 00:55:02

NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2016 May 13 2200 UTC


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Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: activeminor stormsevere stormUpdated at: 2016 May 13 2200 UTCMid-latitudes

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High latitudes

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15 %

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