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Space Weather Update: 06/17/2016

By, 06/17/2016

SUBSIDING CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA forecasters have downgraded the odds of a geomagnetic storm on June 17th to only 20% as Earth exits a stream of fast solar wind. Auroras are unlikely tonight. Aurora alerts: text orvoice

POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS: Bright colors have appeared in the skies over Antarctica--but it's not the aurora australis. Instead, pastel stratospheric clouds are floating over the frozen continent. B. Sudarsan Patro photographed the apparition on June 17th from the Bharati Indian Base Station:


"The clouds were absolutely stunning," says Patro. "It was really surprising and a new experience for all of us."

Atmospheric optics expert Les Cowley says "Bharati Station at 70 degrees south is just the place to get these wonderful filmy Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs).  Floating 9 to 16 miles high, they need stunningly-cold temperatures below -85 Celsius to form."

"More familiar tropospheric clouds can also shine with iridescent colours," he says, "but never as vividly or memorably as PSCs.  This page helps distinguish the two."

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

FARSIDE SOLAR ACTIVITY: The Earth-side of the sun is quiet, with only two sunspots producing very low-level flares. The farside of the sun, however, is more active. On June 16th, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory detected this CME billowing over the sun's northeastern limb:


The source of the explosion is on the other side of the sun. It might be an active sunspot hidden from view by the body of the sun. If so, more CMEs are possible in the days ahead as the sunspot continues to flare. None of the CMEs, however, would be geoeffective until the active region turns toward Earth. For now, Earth-directed solar activity remains very low. Solar flare alerts: text or voice

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

RED SPRITES AND GREEN AIRGLOW: Thunderstorm season is underway in the northern hemisphere. That means astrophotographers should point their cameras above the clouds. Thomas Ashcraft did so on June 14th, and he captured two forms of space weather--red sprites and green airglow:


"A large jellyfish sprite appeared over a thunderstorm in the western Oklahoma panhandle last evening," says Ashcraft. "It was about three hundred miles away from my observatory."

"I also caught it in video with very low frequency (VLF) radio emissions, and the parent lightning stroke made a strong pop," he says. Turn up the volume and play the video.

Possibly triggered by cosmic rays, sprites are a form of upper atmospheric that reach up from the tops of thunderstorms toward the edge of space. Although sprites have been seen for at least a century, most scientists did not believe they existed until after 1989 when sprites were photographed by cameras onboard the space shuttle.

The "jellyfish sprite" Ashcraft captured is backlit by a band of green airglow. Airglow surrounds our entire planet, fringing the top of the atmosphere withaurora-like color. Although airglow resembles the aurora borealis, its underlying physics is different. Airglow is caused by an assortment of chemical reactions in the upper atmosphere. Auroras, on the other hand, are ignited by gusts of solar wind.

Realtime Sprite Photo Gallery

Realtime Noctilucent Cloud Photo Gallery

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery

 All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on

On Jun. 17, 2016, the network reported 15 fireballs.
(15 sporadics)



In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]


 Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On June 17, 2016 there were 1707 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid


Miss Distance


2016 LT10

Jun 12

7.4 LD

19 m

2015 XZ378

Jun 13

9.7 LD

16 m

2016 LJ8

Jun 13

6.4 LD

41 m

2016 LK49

Jun 16

3.2 LD

30 m

2016 LY8

Jun 18

13.4 LD

110 m

2009 CV

Jun 20

12.4 LD

60 m

2010 NY65

Jun 24

10.7 LD

215 m

2002 KL6

Jul 22

26.6 LD

1.4 km

2011 BX18

Jul 25

52.7 LD

1.1 km

2005 OH3

Aug 3

5.8 LD

28 m

2000 DP107

Aug 12

66.5 LD

1.0 km

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

 Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Situation Report -- Oct. 30, 2015Stratospheric Radiation (+37o N)

Cosmic ray levels are elevated(+6.1% above the Space Age median). The trend is flat. Cosmic ray levels have increased +0% in the past month.

Sept. 06: 4.14 uSv/hr (414 uRad/hr)

Sept. 12: 4.09 uSv/hr (409 uRad/hr)

Sept. 23: 4.12 uSv/hr (412 uRad/hr)

Sept. 25: 4.16 uSv/hr (416 uRad/hr)

Sept. 27: 4.13 uSv/hr (413 uRad/hr)

Oct. 11: 4.02 uSv/hr (402 uRad/hr)

Oct. 22: 4.11 uSv/hr (411 uRad/hr)

These measurements are based on regular space weather balloon flights: learn more.

Approximately once a week, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly "space weather balloons" to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed cloudstrigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Our measurements show that someone flying back and forth across the continental USA, just once, can absorb as much ionizing radiation as 2 to 5 dental X-rays. For example, here is the data from a flight on Oct. 22, 2015:


Radiation levels peak at the entrance to the stratosphere in a broad region called the "Pfotzer Maximum." This peak is named after physicist George Pfotzer who discovered it using balloons and Geiger tubes in the 1930s. Radiation levels there are more than 80x sea level.

Note that the bottom of the Pfotzer Maximim is near 55,000 ft. This means that some high-flying aircraft are not far from the zone of maximum radiation. Indeed, according to the Oct 22th measurements, a plane flying at 45,000 feet is exposed to 2.79 uSv/hr. At that rate, a passenger would absorb about one dental X-ray's worth of radiation in about 5 hours.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.


Current Conditions

Solar wind
speed: 639.7 km/sec
density: 2.3 protons/cm3

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2012 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1
1403 UT Jun17
24-hr: B4 0926 UT Jun17
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2000 UTDaily Sun: 17 Jun 16Neither of these sunspots poses a threat for strong flares. Solar activity remains low.Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 26
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 17 Jun 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 4 days (1%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 17 Jun 2016

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 88 sfu

explanation | more data
Updated 17 Jun 2016

Current Auroral Oval:


Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.7 nT
Bz: 4.4 nT north

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2011 UTCoronal Holes: 17 Jun 16Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole. Credit: SDO/AIA.Noctilucent Clouds Images from NASA's AIM spacecraft are once again appearing on Check back daily for space-based sightings of noctilucent clouds.


Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, PolarUpdated at: 06-17-2016 16:55:02

NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2016 Jun 16 2200 UTC


0-24 hr

24-48 hr


01 %

01 %


01 %

01 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: activeminor stormsevere stormUpdated at: 2016 Jun 16 2200 UTCMid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


15 %

10 %


05 %

01 %


01 %

01 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


20 %

15 %


30 %

20 %


20 %

15 %