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Space Weather Update: 07/24/2016

By, 07/24/2016

CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms on July 26th. The storms would be caused by the glancing impact of CMEs emerging from the July 23rd flare sites combined with a high-speed solar wind stream due to arrive at about the same time.  High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text or voice

STRONGEST FLARE OF 2016: Sunspot complex AR2565-AR2567 erupted on July 23rd, twice, producing two strong solar flares in quick succession. The first @ 0211 UT registered M5 on the Richter Scale of Flares. The second @ 0516 UT registered M7.6, making it the strongest flare of 2016 so far. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:


Pulses of radiation from the two flares ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a blackout of shortwave radio transmissions over the Pacific side of Earth. These maps from NOAA show the frequencies and territories affected. People who might have noticed the fading signals include ham radio operators, mariners and aviators.

Update: The explosions hurled an impressive CME into space: movie. The body of the cloud will not hit Earth. However, Earth could experience a glancing blow from shock waves on the outskirts of the cloud. This has prompted NOAA forecasters to issue a minor geomagnetic storm warming for July 26th when the shocks might arrive. Aurora alerts: text or voice

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

EARTH'S SHADOW AND THE BELT OF VENUS: The other day, Göran Strand of Östersund, Sweden, was driving toward the sunset when he happened to glance in the rearview mirror. This is what he saw:


"As the sun was setting in the west, the shadow of Earth was rising behind me in the east," he says. "It is the navy-blue band just above the roadway."

Think about it. When you go outside at night, you are standing inside Earth's shadow. As the sun sets, the shadow rises. That's what night is.

"Above the blue shadow band you can also see a pink band commonly called the 'Belt of Venus,'" adds Strand. That is the transition zone between night and day.

Many people stare at the sunset. But "as the sun is setting, you should always look behind you," advises Strand. "It is beautiful there, too."

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

WHERE NO DUCK HAS GONE BEFORE: Yes, that really is a Vulcan rubber duck! The students of Earth to Sky Calculus flew the pointy-eared water bird to the stratosphere on July 19, 2016, as part of their ongoing program to monitor cosmic rays in the stratosphere. Here he is at the apex of the flight, 109,580 ft:


"Mr Squawk" hitchhiked on a helium balloon payload that carried an array of X-ray/gamma-ray sensors. By launching these sensors 3 or 4 times a month, the students have shown that cosmic rays are intensifying--a trend that affects mountain climbers, air travelers, high-altitude drones and astronauts on the International Space Station.

This research is crowd funded. Would you like to support it? Buy a duck! Edge of Space Vulcan Ducks are now available in the Earth to Sky Store.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

Realtime Noctilucent Cloud Photo Gallery

Realtime Sprite Photo Gallery


 All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on

On Jul. 24, 2016, the network reported 17 fireballs.
(15 sporadics, 1 Northern June Aquilid, 1 alpha Capricornid)



In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]


 Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On July 24, 2016 there were potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid


Miss Distance


2016 NS

Jul 20

8.7 LD

34 m

2002 KL6

Jul 22

26.6 LD

1.4 km

2016 NJ39

Jul 22

11.5 LD

39 m

2011 BX18

Jul 25

52.7 LD

1.1 km

2016 NW15

Jul 26

13.7 LD

35 m

2016 NE39

Jul 26

6.7 LD

88 m

2016 NX22

Aug 2

12.9 LD

87 m

2005 OH3

Aug 3

5.8 LD

28 m

2000 DP107

Aug 12

66.5 LD

1.0 km

2004 BO41

Sep 7

38.9 LD

1.1 km

2015 KE

Sep 10

14.9 LD

23 m

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

 Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Situation Report -- Oct. 30, 2015Stratospheric Radiation (+37o N)

Cosmic ray levels are elevated(+6.1% above the Space Age median). The trend is flat. Cosmic ray levels have increased +0% in the past month.

Sept. 06: 4.14 uSv/hr (414 uRad/hr)

Sept. 12: 4.09 uSv/hr (409 uRad/hr)

Sept. 23: 4.12 uSv/hr (412 uRad/hr)

Sept. 25: 4.16 uSv/hr (416 uRad/hr)

Sept. 27: 4.13 uSv/hr (413 uRad/hr)

Oct. 11: 4.02 uSv/hr (402 uRad/hr)

Oct. 22: 4.11 uSv/hr (411 uRad/hr)

These measurements are based on regular space weather balloon flights: learn more.

Approximately once a week, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly "space weather balloons" to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed cloudstrigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Our measurements show that someone flying back and forth across the continental USA, just once, can absorb as much ionizing radiation as 2 to 5 dental X-rays. For example, here is the data from a flight on Oct. 22, 2015:


Radiation levels peak at the entrance to the stratosphere in a broad region called the "Pfotzer Maximum." This peak is named after physicist George Pfotzer who discovered it using balloons and Geiger tubes in the 1930s. Radiation levels there are more than 80x sea level.

Note that the bottom of the Pfotzer Maximim is near 55,000 ft. This means that some high-flying aircraft are not far from the zone of maximum radiation. Indeed, according to the Oct 22th measurements, a plane flying at 45,000 feet is exposed to 2.79 uSv/hr. At that rate, a passenger would absorb about one dental X-ray's worth of radiation in about 5 hours.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.


Current Conditions

Solar wind
speed: 442.8 km/sec
density: 5.7 protons/cm3

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1652 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C6
1404 UT Jul24
24-hr: M2 0620 UT Jul24
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1600 UTDaily Sun: 24 Jul 16Sunspot complex AR2565-AR2567 is rotating around the western limb of the sun where it will no loger pose a threat for Earth-directed flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 34
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 24 Jul 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 16 days (8%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 24 Jul 2016

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 86 sfu

explanation | more data
Updated 24 Jul 2016

Current Auroral Oval:


Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 10.2 nT
Bz: 8 nT south

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1653 UTCoronal Holes: 24 Jul 16
Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole could brush past Earth on July 23-24. Credit: SDO/AIA.Noctilucent Clouds Images from NASA's AIM spacecraft are once again appearing on Check back daily for space-based sightings of noctilucent clouds.


Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, PolarUpdated at: 07-24-2016 15:55:02

NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2016 Jul 23 2200 UTC


0-24 hr

24-48 hr


40 %

30 %


10 %

01 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: activeminor stormsevere stormUpdated at: 2016 Jul 23 2200 UTCMid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


10 %

10 %


01 %

01 %


01 %

01 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


20 %

20 %


25 %

25 %


15 %

10 %