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Space Weather Update: 09/05/2016

By, 09/05/2016

SLACKENING SOLAR WIND: Earth is exiting a fast-moving stream of solar wind that sparked bright auroras over the weekend.  As a result, NOAA forecasters have lowered the odds of geomagnetic storms on Sept. 5th to only 20%. Aurora alerts:text or voice

'AURORA SEASON' IS UNDERWAY: Around the Arctic Circle, the end of summer is greeted with mixed feelings. The midnight sun sets, taking its cheerful rays below the horizon. The air might not be warm again for months. The onset of cold, however, brings something wonderful to behold. This:


"A new season with Northern Lights has started in northern Norway," reports photographer Kristin Berg, who took this picture on Sept. 2nd from Tromsø. "What a night! "

Northern Lights are returning to the Arctic for two reasons. The first is simple: It's getting dark. The exit of the midnight sun is leaving velvety-dark skies where geomagnetic storms can paint their colors. The second is a little more complicated. During the weeks around equinoxes, the tilt of the interplanetary magnetic field favors geomagnetic storms. Even gentle gusts of solar wind can spark bright outbursts of light.

Aurora season has definitely begun. Monitor the photo gallery for more sightings:

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

DARK SOLAR FILAMENT: A dark filament of magnetism is snaking across the sun today. Measuring more than 450,000 km from end-to-end, the bushy structure is an easy target for properly filtered backyard telescopes. Amateur astronomerMike Taormina sends this picture from Malta, New York:


The filament is filled with plasma held above the surface of the sun by magnetic lines of force.  Structures like this one tend to be unstable.  If the filament collapses, it could fall to the surface below, igniting an explosion called a 'Hyder flare." The blast, if it occurs, would be Earth directed.  Astronomers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments. Solar flare alerts: text or voice

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

Realtime Sprite Photo Gallery


 Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Updated: Sept.3, 2016 // Next Flight: Sept. 10, 2016

Sept. 3, 2016: On Sept. 2nd, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus conducted a successful transcontinental launch of two space weather balloons--one from New Hampshire and another from California. The New Hampshire balloon recorded the highest levels of atmospheric radiation since our monitoring program began two years ago. Students are reducing the data now, and we will report the results in the coming week.

While you wait, here is a shot of the Atlantic coast of Maine taken during the Sept. 2nd balloon flight from an altitude of 118,000 feet:


Approximately once a week, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed cloudstrigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1,#2#3#4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of almost 13% since 2015:


Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

THIS RESEARCH IS CROWD-FUNDED: The cosmic ray research presented on is done by students, driven by curiosity, and funded entirely by readers.  Our latest flight over California on Aug. 21st was sponsored by World Tech Toys of Valencia CA.  In exchange for their generous donation of $750, we flew a toy Striker Drone to the edge of space:



HD video and poster-quality images of the drone in space are now being used by World Tech Toys for marketing and outreach--an out-of-this-world bargain.

Our next flights on Sept. 2nd and Sept. 10th need sponsors. Would you like to assist?  Contact Dr. Tony Phillips to make arrangements.

 All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on

On Sep. 5, 2016, the network reported 23 fireballs.
(21 sporadics, 1 September epsilon Perseid, 1 Northern iota Aquariid)



In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]


 Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On September 5, 2016 there were 1728 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid


Miss Distance


2004 BO41

Sep 7

38.9 LD

1.1 km

2016 QS44

Sep 10

8 LD

57 m

2015 KE

Sep 10

14.9 LD

23 m

2016 QL44

Sep 17

3.7 LD

44 m

2016 QS11

Sep 18

12.2 LD

33 m

2009 UG

Sep 30

7.3 LD

101 m

2100 Ra-Shalom

Oct 9

58.3 LD

1.1 km

2014 UR

Oct 18

12 LD

21 m

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.


Current Conditions

Solar wind
speed: 538.2 km/sec
density: 2.0 protons/cm3

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2024 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1
1721 UT Sep05
24-hr: B2 0440 UT Sep05
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2000 UTDaily Sun: 05 Sep 16Sunspot AR2585 is large but quiet. Solar activity remains low. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 59
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 05 Sep 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 20 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 05 Sep 2016

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 97 sfu

explanation | more data
Updated 05 Sep 2016

Current Auroral Oval:


Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.2 nT
Bz: 0.0 nT

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2024 UTCoronal Holes: 05 Sep 16
Earth is inside a fast stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole. Credit: NASA/SDO.Noctilucent Clouds NASA's AIM spacecraft has suffered an anomaly, and a software patch is required to fix it. As a result, current noctilucent cloud images will not return until late September 2016.


Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, PolarUpdated at: 08-06-2016 16:55:02

NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2016 Sep 04 2200 UTC


0-24 hr

24-48 hr


20 %

20 %


01 %

01 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: activeminor stormsevere stormUpdated at: 2016 Sep 04 2200 UTCMid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


25 %

15 %


05 %

01 %


01 %

01 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


15 %

15 %


20 %

20 %


20 %

15 %