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Space Weather Update: 09/18/2016

By, 09/18/2016

THE GEOMAGNETIC BLITZ OF SEPTEMBER 1941: Seventy-five years ago today, a massive geomagnetic storm disrupted electrical power, interrupted radio broadcasts, and illuminated the night sky in a World War II battle theater. The untold story of this remarkable event has just been published in a lively article by two space weather researchers.

HERE COMES THE SOLAR WIND: A broad hole has opened up in the sun's atmosphere, and it is spewing a stream of solar wind into space. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring the structure as it turns toward Earth:


Astronomers call this a "coronal hole." It is a region in the sun's outer atmosphere (corona) where magnetic fields have opened up, allowing solar wind to escape. More than a week ago, a stream of solar wind flowing from this coronal hole blew past NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft at 550 km/s to 600 km/s.  We can expect similar speeds when it reaches Earth on Sept. 20th, with a 30% chance of G1-classgeomagnetic storms. Free: Aurora Alerts

Around the Arctic Circle, green lights are already flickering. Yuichi Takasaka saw them Saturday over the Jökulsárlón Glacier Lagoon in Iceland:


Scientists have long known that equinoxes favor auroras. Around this time of year, even a slight gust of solar wind can spark beautiful Arctic lights. The timing of the incoming solar wind stream, arriving only two days before the northern autumnal equinox, could scarcely be better. Stay tuned to the aurora photo gallery for sightings.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

A STACK OF HOT PANCAKES: On Sept. 15th, something strange happened to the setting sun in Denmark. "It was extremely spectacular (and more than a little weird)," says Liselotte Kahns who took this picture from Nr. Lyngby, Northern Jutland:


What turned the sun into a stack of hot pancakes? Atmospheric optics expert Les Cowley explains:

"This sunset is a powerful example of 'light ray channelling,'" he says. "Rays from the setting sun get trapped between strong temperature inversion layers, warm air above cold. Their temperature gradients bounce the rays up and down like a waveguide forcing them to travel tens and sometimes even hundreds of miles around Earth's circumference. The rays escape to form multiple slit-like sun images. This mirage's extreme form is the Novaya Zemlya effect when a rectangular sun-stack shows long before true dawn or after sunset."

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery


Realtime Sprite Photo Gallery

Aurora alerts: text or voice

 Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Updated: Sept.3, 2016 // Next Flight: Sept. 10, 2016

Sept. 3, 2016: On Sept. 2nd, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus conducted a successful transcontinental launch of two space weather balloons--one from New Hampshire and another from California. The New Hampshire balloon recorded the highest levels of atmospheric radiation since our monitoring program began two years ago. Students are reducing the data now, and we will report the results in the coming week.

While you wait, here is a shot of the Atlantic coast of Maine taken during the Sept. 2nd balloon flight from an altitude of 118,000 feet:


Approximately once a week, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed cloudstrigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1,#2#3#4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of almost 13% since 2015:


Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

THIS RESEARCH IS CROWD-FUNDED: The cosmic ray research presented on is done by students, driven by curiosity, and funded entirely by readers.  Our latest flight over California on Aug. 21st was sponsored by World Tech Toys of Valencia CA.  In exchange for their generous donation of $750, we flew a toy Striker Drone to the edge of space:


HD video and poster-quality images of the drone in space are now being used by World Tech Toys for marketing and outreach--an out-of-this-world bargain.

Our next flights on Sept. 2nd and Sept. 10th need sponsors. Would you like to assist?  Contact Dr. Tony Phillips to make arrangements.

 All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on

On Sep. 18, 2016, the network reported 3 fireballs.
(3 sporadics)



In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]


 Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On September 18, 2016 there were 1731 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid


Miss Distance


2016 RU33

Sep 16

6 LD

14 m

2016 QL44

Sep 17

3.6 LD

42 m

2016 QS11

Sep 18

12.2 LD

29 m

2016 RM20

Sep 20

6.2 LD

25 m

2009 UG

Sep 30

7.3 LD

101 m

2100 Ra-Shalom

Oct 9

58.3 LD

1.1 km

2014 UR

Oct 18

12 LD

21 m

2005 SE71

Oct 24

72.2 LD

1.0 km

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.


Current Conditions

Solar wind
speed: 344.7 km/sec
density: 6.6 protons/cm3

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2223 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2
1948 UT Sep18
24-hr: B6 1100 UT Sep18
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2200 UTDaily Sun: 18 Sep 16Sunspot AR2592 is small and poses no threat for strong explosions. Solar flare activity remains very low. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 14
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 18 Sep 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 20 days (8%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Updated 18 Sep 2016

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 80 sfu

explanation | more data
Updated 18 Sep 2016

Current Auroral Oval:


Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.5 nT
Bz: 0.3 nT south

explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2223 UTCoronal Holes: 18 Sep 16
A solar wind stream flowing from this coronal hole could reach Earth as early as Sept.19th; the 20th is more likely, though. Credit: NASA/SDO.Noctilucent Clouds NASA's AIM spacecraft has suffered an anomaly, and a software patch is required to fix it. As a result, current noctilucent cloud images will not return until late September 2016.


Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, PolarUpdated at: 08-06-2016 16:55:02

NOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2016 Sep 18 2200 UTC


0-24 hr

24-48 hr


01 %

01 %


01 %

01 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: activeminor stormsevere stormUpdated at: 2016 Sep 18 2200 UTCMid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


35 %

40 %


10 %

10 %


01 %

01 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


15 %

15 %


20 %

20 %


20 %

30 %