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Space Weather Update: 04/01/2017

By, 04/01/2017

APRIL 1ST COMET FLYBY: No kidding. This weekend, green comet 41P/Tuttle-Giacobini-Kresak is flying over Earth's northern hemisphere where sky watchers can find it all night long not far from the bowl of the Big Dipper. At closest approach on April 1st it will be just 21 million km from Earth--an easy target for backyard telescopes and almost visible to the naked eye. [photo gallery] [sky map] [ephemeris]

BIG SUNSPOT FACES EARTH: In a year of few sunspots, AR2645 is remarkable. The young spot has quickly grown from an almost invisible speck into a sprawling behemoth more than 120,000 km wide, with multiple dark cores larger than Earth. And, it is directly facing our planet:


AR2645 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class (moderately strong) solar flares. Any such explosions while the sunspot faces Earth could ionize the top of our planet's atmosphere and alter the normal propagation of radio transmissions around the globe. Shortwave radio blackouts are possible if the sunspot erupts.

Despite its potential, AR2645 has so far been quiet, emitting only a crackling of minor C-flares with minimum effect on Earth. NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% chance of more potent M-flares in the next 24 hours.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

PINK AURORAS: Earth's solar wind environment remains enhanced 6 days after our planet entered a stream of solar wind flowing from a canyon-shaped hole in the sun's atmosphere. The action of this wind stream is producing intermittent auroras around the poles--including this surge of pink last night in the Finnish Lapland:


"Just before midnight, suddenly, we saw an enormous outburst of auroras," says photographer B.Art Braafhart. "This pink corona was the highlight of the show."

More Arctic auroras are possible in the nights ahead.  In addition to the current solar wind stream, another lesser stream is due to arrive in the next 24 hours or so, adding its effect to the gaseous flow now surrounding Earth.  NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% to 30% chance of G1-class geomagnetic on April 1st and 2nd.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

FLIGHT OF THE EASTERNAUTS: The cosmic ray monitoring program of and Earth to Sky Calculus is not supported by government grants or big corporate sponsors. Instead we rely on you. That is, you and the Easternauts:


On March 2nd, student researchers flew a payload-full of Easter bunnies to the edge of space--and you can have one for $39.95. (Space helmet included!) They make great Easter gifts for young scientists. Each bunny comes with a greeting card showing the Easternaut in flight and telling the story of its journey to the stratosphere and back again.

More far-out gifts may be found in the Earth to Sky store. All proceeds support STEM education and our atmospheric cosmic ray monitoring program. 

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery

 All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on

On Apr. 1, 2017, the network reported 8 fireballs.
(8 sporadics)



In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]


 Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On April 1, 2017 there were 1781 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:



Miss Distance


2017 FY101

Mar 29

1.3 LD

16 m

2017 FR91

Mar 29

3.5 LD

18 m

2017 FJ101

Mar 30

0.8 LD

9 m

2017 FX90

Apr 1

2.4 LD

23 m

2017 FV

Apr 2

9 LD

60 m

2017 FU102

Apr 2

0.6 LD

8 m

2017 FQ127

Apr 3

2 LD

27 m

2017 FT102

Apr 3

1 LD

6 m

2017 EB3

Apr 4

13.8 LD

43 m

2017 FA102

Apr 4

14.2 LD

34 m

2017 FQ91

Apr 4

14.9 LD

37 m

2017 FM101

Apr 4

7 LD

21 m

2017 FX101

Apr 5

9.9 LD

39 m

2017 DC38

Apr 5

14.6 LD

54 m

2017 FO127

Apr 6

11.2 LD

18 m

2017 FU64

Apr 6

3.7 LD

74 m

2017 FN101

Apr 7

10.3 LD

47 m

2017 FS102

Apr 7

7.7 LD

18 m

2003 BD44

Apr 18

21.7 LD

1.9 km

2014 JO25

Apr 19

4.6 LD

1.0 km

1999 CU3

Apr 19

63.7 LD

1.9 km

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

 Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere


Readers, thank you for your patience while we continue to develop this new section of We've been working to streamline our data reduction, allowing us to post results from balloon flights much more rapidly, and we have developed a new data product, shown here:


This plot displays radiation measurements not only in the stratosphere, but also at aviation altitudes. Dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. These measurements are made by our usual cosmic ray payload as it passes through aviation altitudes en route to the stratosphere over California.

What is this all about? Approximately once a week, and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed cloudstrigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1#2#3#4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 12% since 2015:


Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.


Current Conditions

Solar wind
speed: 602.9 km/sec
density: 3.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACEDSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1629 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B9 1036 UT Apr01
24-hr: B9 1036 UT Apr01
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1600 UT


Daily Sun: 01 Apr 17

These large sunspots have stable magnetic fields that pose no threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI


Sunspot number: 65
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 01 Apr 2017

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2017 total: 27 days (30%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 01 Apr 2017

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 91 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 01 Apr 2017


Current Auroral Oval:


Switch to: EuropeUSANew ZealandAntarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation


Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
explanation | more data

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.1 nT
Bz: 1.2 nT north
more data: ACEDSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1629 UT


Coronal Holes: 01 Apr 17

Solar wind flowing this minor coronal hole should reach Earth on April 2-3, adding its contribution to an already enhanced solar wind environment around Earth. Credit: NASA/SDO.


Noctilucent Clouds The southern season for noctilucent clouds began on Nov. 17, 2016. Come back to this spot every day to see the "daily daisy" from NASA's AIM spacecraft, which is monitoring the dance of electric-blue around the Antarctic Circle.


Switch view: Ross Ice ShelfAntarctic PeninsulaEast AntarcticaPolar

Updated at: 02-24-2017 17:55:02


NOAA Forecasts


Updated at: 2017 Mar 31 2200 UTC


0-24 hr

24-48 hr


10 %

10 %


01 %

01 %


Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: activeminor stormsevere storm

Updated at: 2017 Mar 31 2200 UTC


0-24 hr

24-48 hr


40 %

35 %


20 %

20 %


05 %

05 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr


15 %

15 %


20 %

20 %


25 %

30 %